The hryvnia exchange rate affects the real estate market

05.02.2018 00:00
Real Estate Market Analysis | How to change prices for housing in Kiev in 2018 A habitual song of realtors - buy an apartment now, otherwise prices will soar - was replaced by a new one: take it while it's cheap. And, as experts say, it looks like they are right. This year, prices for cheap housing still found a "bottom" and can go on growth in the next year. At the same time the secondary will continue to become cheaper.  Primary real estate market: there is nowhere to fall

According to experts, there will be no serious shocks in the real estate market of the capital next year.

Related article: Growth in housing prices premium in Kiev in 2009 will amount to 20-25%

"All the talk about the" soap bubble "at the moment does not have a good reason. Today, only the exchange rate of the hryvnia can influence the market. But even if the hryvnia drops to 30 UAH / $, there will be no indexation. Accordingly, within these limits, there will be a decline in dollar prices, "- said the former president of the Association of Real Estate Experts Sergei Sinister.

However, even in the case of a stable rate, the expert assumes, the cost per square meter during 2018 may decrease by 5-10%.

In the case of exchange rate stability, the forecast for the next year may look something like this: in the spring, prices will stand still, and in summer they may drop by 5-10% and at the same level will be fixed by Sergey Sinister

At the same time, according to the director of CDS consulting company Yaroslav Chapko, the prices in the most popular segment, economy class, are not expected to decline next year.

"Taking into account the rise in price of construction materials, fuel, salary costs and other expenses, the prices will not be exactly lower than today (14-15 thousand UAH per 1 sq. M.). In many projects, they are already on the verge of profitability. Therefore, such housing may even rise in price, "Yaroslav Chapko said.

Along with this, she said, many projects that previously positioned themselves as a comfort class apartment will be cheaper next year. "The reason for this was the overestimation of these complexes, which in most cases do not have competitive advantages," says Chapko.

In addition, next year experts expect an increase in the share of mortgage lending and installments. "Already now we see that many developers offer installments not for 2-3 years, but for 5-7 years. Next year we expect this trend to continue.

Also, an increasing number of developers will use the mortgage as a tool to stimulate demand, "Sinister notes.

Apartments on the secondary housing will be cheaper

Meanwhile, the secondary real estate market of the capital, which is traditionally nominated in US currency, will continue to fall in price next year.

So, according to the consulting company SV Development, only this year the average prices fell by 10%. "And the same trend will continue in the next", - says the analyst of the company Sergey Kostetsky.

According to him, the monthly secondary market is replenished with hundreds of proposals, but there are no buyers.

Now only in the capital for sale are about 60 thousand apartments. This is a colossal offer, which in 10, and even 20 times exceeds the effective demand Sergei Kostetsky

He added that the secondary real estate market has become uninteresting to buyers. "Almost completely eliminated by investors who purchased apartments for earnings on subsequent leasing.

The increase in the "communal" made this type of business uninteresting, "he explains. Therefore, to sell their homes, the owners willingly go to the bargain and sometimes drop to 20%.

So, according to the real estate agency Blagovest, the most budgeted apartments sold in October were: 1-room hotel with an area of ​​28 square meters. m on the street. Volkova (Desnyanskiy borough), its price was $ 19.5 thousand, and a one-bedroom apartment of 32 square meters. m on the street. Buchma (Dneprovsky district) for $ 20 thousand.

And the most expensive - 2-bedroom apartment on the street. Gorodetsky area of ​​80 square meters. m for $ 245 thousand. In this, according to Kostetskiy, the main demand remains within $ 20-30 thousand. And in this price category there are many proposals.

For example, for an apartment with European-quality renovation of 24 square meters. m in a brick house on Voskresenka ask $ 20 thousand with a trade. For the same $ 20 thousand "Vesti" found a hotel on the street. Architects. But the most affordable two-piece was an apartment in 42 square meters. m on the street. Bethlehem - for $ 26 thousand.

Earlier it was reported that the real estate market of Ukraine is entering a new stage of development.
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