The global housing market splits into separate clusters, living by its laws.
In 2000-2006, the house grew in value. Global appreciation of the real estate on almost the entire planet largely been caused by cheap and available credit resources. In 2006-2008, this trend was broken. And after a couple of years, falling national real estate markets began to move along individual trajectories. Today expensive Asia and the United States and many European countries are becoming cheaper. But talk about future trends is difficult: the world has entered a period of political instability and environmental disasters.
U.S. cheaper, Asia becomes more expensive
Restoration of global housing market in 2010 came to a halt. According to the portal Globalpropertyguide.com, only 15 of the 36 countries where it monitors, prices rose. Unexpectedly, the leader became Latvia - 19% per year. Latvian secret miracle is simple: in 2009, housing is cheaper by half, so that in the past year, prices have played only a little after the catastrophic decline. Appreciation of the real estate is largely associated with foreign investors. Scandinavians have been actively buying up assets for pennies stressful.
Again started to invest in Russian Latvia: Latvians to lure their ability to obtain a residence permit for five years after the purchase of residential property at 70 thousand euros. Excellent advertising Latvia was a story about applying for a residence permit Luzhkov. Russian thanks to this news learned about the new Latvian rules, resulting in the number of calls in the Latvian real estate company has grown many times over.
In 2010, the house rose in price in the Nordic countries, Germany and France. Suddenly, prices soared in Paris - by 18%. Average cost per square meter in Berlin for the year rose by 7,9% and amounted to 1,739 euros in downtown "square" has risen in price by 21%, to 2,599 euros. However, despite soaring prices, Berlin remains one of the cheapest capitals in Western Europe.
Among the leaders on the rise in the cost of housing for 2010 - Singapore (13.6%), Taiwan (9.7%), Japan (in Tokyo, prices rose by 5%). Slowly continues to get more expensive housing in China. The Government has taken several measures to cool the market, and in 2011 they finally gave effect - too rapid price increases stopped. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the 2010 prices in Beijing rose by 6.8% in Shanghai - by 2,3%.
The growth of housing costs in the Asia-Pacific region - perhaps the main trend of today's global market. It reflects the shift in the center of economic development in the U.S. and Europe to Asia. At this bias and its relationship to house prices paid attention to the March exhibition MIPIM-known economist Nouriel Roubini. Camoy expensive residential streets in the world by the end of 2010 was the Severn Road in Hong Kong. Average cost per square meter here is 57 thousand Euros: higher prices for the year was 9%.
Zone of cheaper real estate has in the past year, the Eastern Europe. Leaders in lower prices - Ireland (11%), Greece (9.8%), Bulgaria (9,5%), Lithuania (7%), Hungary (7%) and Spain (6%). Except for Greece, all these countries were the leaders of the fall in 2009: then, for example, Bulgarian apartments fell by a third. In a reversal of this trend is hard to believe: the national economies of these countries are experiencing major problems.
For the fifth year of cheaper housing in the U.S. - despite a massive infusion of state funds in this sector and constant reassurance that even a little bit, and the market will start recovering. According to the index S & P Case-Shiller, the year the U.S. residential real estate fell by 5%. According to the agency Zillow, the total value of U.S. housing decreased in 2009 to $ 1 trillion, and in 2010 - at 1.7 trillion dollars.
Bad things, and with a mortgage. In 2010, U.S. banks were seized from insolvent debtors record number of mortgage housing - 1.05 million of real estate. According to the company RealtyTrac, the previous record was set in 2009 when it seized 918 thousand objects.
In addition, for the year nearly 2.9 million Americans have received notification from the creditors of the impending withdrawal of housing debt, the sale of real estate by auction or on the transition of ownership of home ownership to the lender. The main reason for increase in mortgage debt and a large number of bankruptcies of mortgage experts call a high level of unemployment in the country, which stands at 10%.
Played a role, and that because of the constant fall in prices, many debtors were in position "under water" when their property was worth less taken credit. Total U.S. household debt (including credit cards and mortgages), according to the Fed, was an astronomical sum - 13,4 trillion.
The first results in 2011 have added to Americans optimism. In February, the number of new buildings has fallen by 22% and the number of building permits decreased by 8,2%. Single-family homes built on 30% less than a year ago. In per capita terms, all these data are historical lows.
New times, new risks
For a long time investment in overseas property have been the lot of few. But since 2000, everything changed. Globalization has covered real estate and a conservative. Invest have become, including housewives and pensioners. Bought up houses and apartments in Thailand, Portugal, Montenegro and Spain. Invest was easy: prices have risen across the globe. Every year for investors opened a new Klondike that promises incredible growth in property prices: UAE, Bulgaria and so on.
"How to earn more?" - An issue faced by private investors. Past three years, not only spared investors from euphoria, but also set a fundamentally new questions. How to get money from overseas property? In which countries can invest in the next ten years? What are the new risks?
The risk that no one thought to the crisis - the liquidity of real estate markets. And if easier - who will be the final buyer or tenant of the property? Is it easy to sell your property? This risk is clearly manifested in Dubai. Most buyers of local housing reasoned this way: buy cheap at the stage of excavation and then pereprodam on completion. But "suddenly" found that the number of investors, speculators, many more than the number of end users. In the acute phase of the global crisis, the cost of Dubai's housing fell by 65%.
In the case of Dubai, indicators and other risks - call it the "foreigners in an Islamic country." For many years, investors bought real estate under construction there at a very low level of legislation. "Sheikh personally guaranteed. Authorities are interested in the inflow of investments into the country "- to convince developers. Buyers who enchanted the big profit, faith in the word. Since the crisis started construction rose, but investors threatened weaning rights in real estate made to pay on schedule, and resale flats temporarily banned. Buyers were in the marginalized situation: they can sue, but the chances of winning are not many.
The new zone of risk - Egypt. Yes, prices in new buildings here are very low. Flats can be bought for 10 thousand dollars, and a square meter can cost less than $ 400. In Egypt, the last few years, foreign investors actively bought cheap housing under construction: in particular, only in the area of ??Hurghada Russian purchased more than 18 thousand houses. But just how attractive this property today? There were riots a few weeks, people looted shops and houses. Planes from Russia to Egypt do not fly. How much is the property in a hot spot?
Hot zone, it seems, has become the whole of North Africa. In Libya, the war has just begun. How widely it spread? Libya - one of the largest oil exporters: would not it be damaged ecology Mediterranean Sea? You can safely assume that the countries of North Africa in the coming years, private investors in the property market will not.
In another part of the world - Japan, where the earthquake took place and there is the danger great catastrophe at a nuclear station, "Fukushima". Foreign investors bought a little property in Japan, since 1990 the country became cheaper property or stagnated. But now and at all obvious: the need to invest as much as possible from the troubled islands. This risk can be called ecological, and its importance will increase in coming years.
Private investors in real estate is now necessary to take into account many factors, not just political or environmental. There are factors of demography: how quickly will occur Arabization of France? What will this country, if the birth rate in Arab families is much higher than in families of indigenous French? There are factors geoclimatic. If the oceans rise accelerates, what territory will be flooded? By the way, part of the British investing abroad, among other things, and for this reason. Finally, there are economic factors.
If the crisis will intensify, which countries are hit the hardest and which will increase social tension? If oil prices will quickly rise in price due to the depletion of deposits and local conflicts, how to rise and fall flights tourist traffic? In short, instability in the world is such that clearly predict in which areas of the world real estate will go up, and where necessary to buy a foreigner is almost impossible.