How it feels after the crisis, the real estate market?

20.12.2010 07:32
Real Estate Market Analysis | How it feels after the crisis, the real estate market?  Russian real estate market has become one of the first victims of the global financial crisis. Explanation of this fact is simple: in the midst of economic turmoil potential home buyers were forced to abandon plans to address the housing problem and focus on more pressing issues. As far as this situation has changed in the past year, trying to understand "Novye Izvestia".

The outgoing year was not easy for suburban real estate market: no time realtors rejoice timid revival of demand, which arose after the passage of the acute phase of the crisis in the summer of statistics spoiled gripped Moscow fires.

Related article: The global downturn in the housing market is gaining momentum

Distant suburbs become closer
However, despite the financial difficulties and natural disasters, the segment of suburban housing, according to experts, it is much more stable than is commonly believed, so take it out of balance is not so easy. This means that the demand for suburban sites will only grow. The demand has gradually shifted to the west and southwest directions, which are less flammable. Furthermore, as analysts note, this year's prospective buyers preferred the shelter in the middle and far suburbs.

Attractive prices - trump real estate located in 20-30-kilometer zone, which means that with relatively modest budget, which is obviously not enough to buy a home in Moscow and Moscow suburbs, there is already possible to buy a studio apartment. That is why, according to observations director of the department of new buildings of "Incom-Real Estate Julian Gutman, compared with last year have changed and the characteristics of the proposal: developers reoriented towards an economy class, which in current circumstances, the most in demand.

Be allowed to sleep
Despite the unstable economic situation, the rental market for the outgoing year was the best way possible: in the words of CEO of Penny Lane Realty George Dzagurova, demand in this segment almost approached pre-crisis levels. And what is the situation with the hiring of an apartment apparently went smoothly, it became clear last spring, when, according to first deputy director of MIEL-Rent, Maria Zhukova, the average rental rates rose immediately to 15%, and traditional autumn revival of demand only consolidate this result.

However, the segment of the rental boasts improved not only quantitative but also qualitative characteristics: potential tenants are interested and always located at the peak demand for economy-class apartments, and more expensive properties. According to the observations of Mr. Dzagurova, intensified and corporate clients, who once again began to look for temporary shelter for their employees. And their requests just relate to objects of business and premium class for the price of 3 to 8 thousand dollars a month. In economy class budgets more modest: the average cost of hiring one-room apartment in the capital is 27,8 thousand rubles a month, "kopeck piece" pull on 37,7 thousand rubles, and "three-ruble note will have to shell out 52.3 thousand rubles per month.

All new buildings will not be enough
Under the sign of the changes passed this year for the capital market of new buildings, for which demand in the acute phase of crisis has slid to almost zero. According to the CEO of the company "MIEL-New" Maria Litinetskoy, the main market trends of new buildings in the Moscow region this year include the shift in consumer preferences toward the cost of purchases. In this case, to date, a square meter of the capital property is worth about 190 thousand rubles. "Maximum number of transactions in new Moscow accounts for the price range from 4,8 to 10 million rubles, - says the expert. - The city has a shortage of new buildings of an economy class. Now in Moscow a month goes one-two economy-class facility, and in 2011, these figures do not increase. The share of new buildings on the property market will decline, with year-end decline may reach 30-40%. "

As for predictions, then, according to Ms. Litinetskoy, next year we can expect price increases, but it will not exceed inflation and will not exceed 8.10% per year.

Apartments go from hand to hand
But the capital's secondary housing market demonstrates an enviable stability: supply and demand here is the optimal ratio, and average price per square meter area is almost fixed at a 198 thousand rubles. No wonder that in such a situation the volume of transactions continues to grow. According to the head of the analytical center of the corporation "Incom" Dmitry Taganova, owners no longer expect growth in the value of their apartments and expose them for sale, and buyers, in turn, trying not to miss a good offer, hurry to make a deal. "In the early months of 2011 the situation in the secondary housing market is unlikely to change significantly. Variations in average cost per square meter will not exceed 1,5-2% monthly. In this case we are talking about the most liquidity facilities - continues to specialist. - The volume of supply will also remain the same - that is, exposure will be about 50-55 thousand apartments, and the average number of transactions will be about 6,5-7 thousands that Moscow is considered the norm. "

Golden meters profitable
Wavelike situation developed in a segment of real estate. If at the beginning of the year and potential buyers do not even think about buying expensive housing, it has since March, the volume of transactions increased immediately by 10%. For merchants it was the signal for higher prices: luxury apartments rose from 365.5 thousand to 391.9 thousand rubles per square meter. But, experts say, the future newcomers are not deterred and the number of deals was just grow, but the sharp rise immediately followed by a significant decline. "Reducing the client streams - the main thing that happened in the last couple of months - explains the managing director of real estate agency exclusive" Manor "Natalie Katz. - And all thanks to the saturation of demand for post-crisis: those who wanted to buy, have already done so. The next surge of buyer activity is expected in the spring, when people will understand well the situation with their payments for the year and will be able to build future plans. "

However, according to Director of Sales Department of elite real estate company Penny Lane Realty Alexander Zima, for those who want to spend money wisely, waiting for spring, does not make sense. "Today, the most profitable investment - is to buy luxury objects in the primary market at a very early stage, ideally - in the period closed sales - says the expert. - The maximum price rise from the stage of excavation before putting the house Acceptance Commission is an average of 40% - from 230 thousand to 400 thousand rubles per square meter. Thus, the profit from investing in luxury properties in the initial phase of the facility is approximately four times higher than the yield on bank deposits. "

The cheapest apartment in Moscow is worth 100 thousand dollars ...
This year, analysts have documented the growth in housing prices in one of the most unattractive areas of the capital - Kapotnya. According to specialists NDV-estate, the cost per "square" is equal to 112-113 thousand rubles, and in newer homes, and all 115,000. And this despite the fact that in the middle of summer the price per square meter in Kapotnya not exceed the mark of 109 thousand rubles. Thus, the flat area of 50 square meters. meters in the 12-storey pre-fabricated house will cost 5.7 million rubles, "odnushka will cost no more than 3,5 million rubles.

... But hundreds of the most expensive - a billion
In December of this year, the average cost of 1 sq. km. meter in the 100 most expensive apartments in Moscow amounted to 36.95 thousand dollars, a 12.6% higher than last year. These data were obtained during the investigation of the company IntermarkSavills - Prime Central Moscow Top-100 Index (PCM TOP-100). According to the report, the minimum price the "square" of this hundred more than 58 thousand dollars and the minimum is 30 thousand dollars. Accordingly, the average budget for the purchase of housing, which fell in the rating must be at least 9.9 million dollars and the total cost of the participants a list - 1 billion "green". 64 object of the PCM Tor-100 offered on the secondary housing market and the rest - in new buildings. If we talk about geographical location, the 55% most expensive real estate is concentrated in Ostozhenka, and the remaining apartments can be found in Khamovniki, Tverskaya, Arbat, Patriarch's Ponds and Yakimanka.

Constantine APR, vice president of the Russian Guild of Realtors:
"In 2011, the demand for housing will fall somewhere in the 20%"
- The situation in the real estate market is largely determined by two key components. The first is the volume of transactions, and if we talk about today, the figure is quite adequate and even close to the pre-crisis levels. But with prices all the way around: the beginning of the crisis they have fallen on average by 35%, and only on the results of October can be seen on some increase, which amounted to about 10%, while the New Year holidays due to the correction happens, and prices again fell slightly.
In general, the housing market depends on incomes that are now growing very slowly and unreliably. As a result, the present level of almost-ready home comes to market with a 30-40% discount to "secondary housing. So now those who have dreams of expansion, it makes sense to sell an apartment in the Khrushchev and the money to purchase a larger area in new housing.
As for the demand side, the situation with him is best illustrated by timing the exposure of an object. For example, in a segment of real estate, where prices are unreasonably inflated, apartments cost from 850 thousand dollars may be exhibited during the year, while economy-class housing is exposed to an average of 86 to 120 days. However, do not forget that today 30-40% of transactions occur with the help of subsidies under the state programs to support veterans, young families and military families. And considering that next year they will be reduced demand for housing will fall somewhere in the 20% and it can only compensate for the economic growth that may occur or may not occur.
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