Forecast of real estate markets -2011

23.11.2010 13:55
Forecast of real estate markets -2011 Before talking about the forecast for 2011, it is worth remembering that the market has led to the current situation. Over the past five years we have witnessed a remarkable zigzag prices on the global real estate market. Prices initially rapidly soared to the heavens, and then just as quickly collapsed.

The first beginnings of the crisis were seen in Israel in 2006. In 2007, prices peaked and began to gradually decline throughout the world, crashing in 2008.

In 2009, the global steel market is gradually recovering from the shock and for the year increased on average by 10%.

True, the general background of growth has been and underachiever. Until now, the U.S. looked hesitant, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Spain and Ireland. This is the country most affected by the crisis of 2008.

General regularities


In most countries, the current growth is due to the fact that governments take radical measures to stimulate the market. Extremely low rates are refinancing incentive for banks to issue loans for housing purchase, which, in turn, are pushing real estate prices.

The most notable trends in the global market can be divided along regional lines. A leading role now occupied by the Asia Pacific market with the most dynamic growth in the past two years.

Obvious evidence of growth is that 61% of the national markets have shown growth over the past 12 months. This, of course, does not reach the level of mid-2006, when 91% of the market shows growth, but much faster than 35% in 2009.

Starting with the II quarter of 2010, the recovery of markets is accelerating. This is evident even in such difficult countries as Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. There has stopped falling prices, which continued throughout 2009.

In Asia, the continuing rapid growth, despite government measures to prevent ballooning of the bubble. "

Risks


Knight Frank analysts saw the general patterns in the risk assessment, and divided the world into two conditional region - Asia and Europe with America.

The most amazing thing that is particularly uncertain in the future turned out to Asian investors. They are concerned about the risks associated with high rates of inflation.

The strongest negative factor, according to experts - is that Asian real estate markets during the credit crisis almost did not pass positions. If somewhere and there was a decline, it was completely arbitrary. Now property prices are still higher than in 2007.

Investors fear the explosion bubble and a double-dip in prices. Superimposed on this high leverage economies of the region - both private and public.

Forecast for 2011

In 2011, the post-crisis increase in prices on the world real estate has slowed down.

Countries most affected by the crisis - such as Spain, Ireland and Eastern European States - did not feel any growth in 2009, nor in the first half of 2010. Some facilities in these countries are sold at half price of the room 2006. Here, we should not expect much growth in the next 18 months. The best thing that could happen here - the price decline will stop.

In countries such as Britain, France, Australia and Canada, prices for the last 18 months have shown steady growth. In Britain and France, it was due to the low cost of real estate and government to stimulate the economy. The Australian market has grown along with the Asian. All this - examples of stable markets with good long-term prospects.

In the U.S., expected a second wave of problems associated with the highest debt load and the pessimistic expectations of investors. This does not allow prices to rise at the general good business background. It seems that prices have found a balance and meet the realities of the time. Do not expect major changes in the next 18 months.

In Asia, we can expect further rapid rise in prices - especially in regions such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and China.

Trends

Knight Frank analysts noted trends to Watch in 2011.

Cancel incentives. Many governments are moving away from the artificial support of the market situation. The most active is seen in the UK, Australia and the USA.

It is recommended to monitor the behavior of governments and their actions to support markets. Special risk in this aspect, according to experts, is the United Kingdom.

Gradual recovery of the construction market. The crisis has actually suspended the construction of new houses. 2009 marked the beginning of a thaw weak, uncertain which continued in 2010.

Underfunding of the construction industry could lead to supply constraints in the market in 2012, which, in turn, will increase prices.

In this trend, there are exceptions - glut of Spain, the United States and Ireland.

State control markets. Not quenched the desire of governments to control national real estate markets. Somewhere it is beginning to bear fruit. For example, there is reason to believe that the Hong Kong government for its rigid administrative methods can not cool down the heated real estate market is strong.

Experts offer follows a similar deterrent measures by European governments.

Debt burden. The most important trend for which provide analysts observe - whether banks meet the needs of industry in the credits on the eastern markets, where debt levels, and so close to the critical point. In Asia, where the level of debt is not so high, the problem is less relevant, but it can also escalate in Europe and America.
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Content tags: Overseas property
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