Falling house prices for the New Year will be veiled discounts

22.11.2010 10:50
Real Estate Market Analysis | Falling house prices for the New Year will be veiled discounts Already a month of real estate market experts predict a stagnation in the housing segment. Pronounce the word slowly and thoughtfully, putting it all universal sorrow.

Developers have, from what sad. For example, in October of this year, according to analysts the company "Relight-Invest, the prices on the market - and the Russian ruble and the dollar -" stagnant "down to 6%.

Related article: Real estate market falls asleep: to invest in housing - is futile

"By the fall of many builders and realtors were expecting a serious surge of buying activity, and at times have increased their advertising budgets, - says the president of CSF Leader Vladimir Voronin - but the traditional business activity this year will not happen."

"The market for new buildings - the head of the analytical center" GdeEtotDom.Ru Alexander Pypin - focus is impossible, since, firstly, its share in the total number of dwellings to be sold at about 20-25%. In addition, new sites is practically comes out, which leads to a shortage of housing in the primary market capital. " According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the first ten months of this year, the volume of housing construction in Russia amounted to 37.7 million square meters. m, which is nearly 5% lower than last year. Logically, the market in deficit should be responsive increase in prices, but in practice we see a decline.

To understand what is happening, one must look to the secondary market - it sets the basic trends. Prices there really stagnated in October relative to September you can even note a slight increase on average by 1%. But at the same time, according to the company "Miel", the number of apartments offered for sale has increased over the month by 7.8%, to 48,900 sites, according to the Inkom-real estate - by 5,2% to 52,500 . This is a record value for the year. What does this mean?

Vendors no longer expect price increases and try to sell the goods at the peak, while buyers are frozen in anticipation of the discount. For example, you can remember what happened to the housing market before the crisis. Since early 2008, to July the number of transactions fell by almost half, while housing costs rose by a third.

Vendors just have not noticed that buyers who voted ruble, and went to market and sell more to no one. It should be noted that many deals in the months before the crisis took place with a substantial discount. But the problem is that the real estate market analysts do not calculate the real cost of transactions, and on the bases of sales, where discounts can not fall.

Of course, in the current situation of falling prices by 40-50% is not worth waiting for, but let's call a spade a spade. Since the beginning of housing in Moscow has risen in price, according to "GdeEtotDom.Ru, from 138,000 to 146,000 rubles, today the price of the next peak and have all the prerequisites that tomorrow they will start to fall. Developers are already talking about the upcoming New Year's discount, however, as an annual tradition. But let us remember: before the crisis, the buyer could count as a gift unless on a baseball cap. However, if someone does not like the word "fall", then let's replace it with the phrase "the market is stagnating at a discount," or "with a sizeable discount.
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