Experts gave their price forecast for new buildings

15.12.2010 16:13
Real Estate Market Analysis | Experts gave their price forecast for new buildings Year-end price was not a disaster for the housing market as anticipated, many market analysts, who spoke about the 50% growth. Low income, high cost of mortgages and inflation slow down demand, while today prices remain unaffordable for almost 60% of Russians, in need of improving their living conditions.

The construction industry is slowly recovering from the crisis, being an outsider among many other industries. Aside from shortages and high prices of financial resources for developers, then there is another "old" problem - obsolete technologies build houses.

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Extremely costly, expensive, requiring a huge amount of cement and other materials, the methods used is simply not possible to build faster. For comparison: in China for several years, a system of "fast assembly" of all types of homes on the frame basis, which allows you to build a 15-storey building for 150 hours. And - from excavation to interior design.

Such growth, however, were and will be a dream, not only for Russia but for Europe, where the average cycle construction homes in the same 15 stories is about 8 months. On the other hand, the "old continent" has no unresolved "housing problem" and there is no need to build quickly or very quickly and in huge quantities.

"Russia has an enormous need for housing that exceeds many of the country several times, but we have gathered mistakes and" sins "of all at home, and have not learned to build cheaply, efficiently and quickly, - says LOOK-Real Estate Director of construction company, O. SG Artem warriors. - It's a shame, but it is - for granted. Add to this the lack of money, bureaucratic coordination of the project for 3-4 years, the rate loans at 25%, the arbitrariness of bureaucrats and get what we deserve. "

According to official statistics, in 2010, an average of 1 man in Russia accounted for approximately 22.3 meter (though many believe the figure is incredibly overpriced), which is 2-3 times lower than in developed countries. For example: in the U.S. The housing is about 75 square meters in the UK - 62, Germany - 45. When you save all the "joys" of building the same, today the average level of housing provision in the EU could theoretically be achieved by Russia in 16 years. Gap with the U.S. can be overcome only in the second half of this century.

"We should add that the extremely low incomes of Russians, as a consequence of low productivity, galloping inflation and very high home prices make it virtually impossible for the acquisition of the majority, - the general director of the metropolitan real estate companies, Dmitry Naumov. - If the Europeans on their salaries can afford to buy a flat for 5-6 years, the Russian - in 21 years, provided that prices do not rise, but will not set aside part of the revenue, but the whole ".

However, despite this, prices for new buildings continue to rise. During the first 11 months of 2010, the cost of new buildings of Moscow has increased by 13,2% and on the results of November amounted to 203.9 thousand rubles per square meter, experts say the company "Relight-Invest. According to a study in U.S. growth since the beginning of the year amounted to 9,6%. The cost in dollars - 6577 for "square".

Simultaneously with the beginning of 2010, the number of apartments for sale in the sales increased by 31,2%, while demand at the same time fell in November to 8.5%, and for the year - by 24,7%.

The biggest demand is practically only the low-cost housing, and in it - one-bedroom apartments, which account for 56% of transactions. This is stated in the study of Miel-New ".

At the 2 nd place on demand are cheap two-bedroom apartments (37%). The share of buyers three-bedroom economy-class housing is 7%. Before the crisis, the leader of sales were "kopeck piece, which accounted for 78% of demand. Demand for one-bedroom apartments was 16%, "treshki - 6%.

Most houses in the price range from 2.5 to 5 million rubles. Economy-class apartment is more expensive 6 million rubles get only 5% of the buyers.

Experts note that at the present time home buyers primarily oriented towards the total cost of the object. Before the crisis, the main factor is the price per square meter. In second place when choosing an apartment is now in the stage of building a house (before the crisis - the fifth place). The third most important factor - the reputation of the seller - has remained unchanged. The fourth most important criterion is the location of the house. In fifth place - the presence of finishing in the apartment.

According to MIEL, the weighted average price in the primary market in October increased slightly (by 1,1%) and amounted to 190.3 thousand rubles per square meter. Prices for apartments in buildings business class hotel is located at 181.5 thousand rubles, or 0.2% higher than in early autumn. In the houses of middle-segment house prices grew by 2,1% and amounted to 122.8 thousand rubles. Economy-class apartment fell 3.7% to 107.3 thousand rubles.

In the sentence structure of the primary market for capital items of business-class accounts for 50%. The share of newly middle class is 22.1% share of new economy-class objects - 7,4%.

Today, the majority of respondents VIEW Real Estate experts believe that the pre-crisis indicators of the housing market will be released in late 2012. In the luxury segment, it will happen sooner - at the end of 2011, the suburban housing will be released at this level is not earlier than 2013.

According to, for example, an analyst at Blackwood, now demand structure corresponds to the pre-crisis state - the primary market accounts for about 55% of transactions in the secondary - about 45%.

As for the near future - in the long term 3-6 months - that analysts predict a rise in prices at the level of inflation plus 4.3%. That is, by the middle of next year's cost per square meter will grow by about 6% by the end of 2011 - by 10-12%.
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