Development scenarios for the real estate market in 2011

01.01.2011 11:15
Real Estate Market Analysis | Development scenarios for the real estate market in 2011 At the end of the year we traditionally summarize this year and make plans and projections for next year.

The fact that what surprises will the real estate market in 2011 and how to operate those who are going to acquire new housing, experts told the Moscow Business Club - the leading market analysts and leaders of the largest real estate companies: Alexander Khrustalev, CEO of NDV-estate " ; Alexander speckled, CEO of analytical agency RWAY; Igor Pinkevich, Chairman of the Board Group "Nastya"; Yuri Khlestakov, CEO, the company "Russian House Real Estate"; Alex Demyanchuk, managing director of First building trust; Vladislav Lutskov, CEO , "Analytical and Consulting Center MIEL; Vladlen Voloshin, CEO, Veles Capital Development"; Pypin Alexander, head of the analytical center "GdeEtotDom.Ru.

Related article: In September, house prices in Russia went up

Discussion of 2010

Evaluating the most important economic and political events of the year, which affected the property market, most experts have called down the capital's mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, after 18-year term and appointing a new Mayor.

"Probably, all market participants will be called one of the main political events of this year replaced the mayor of Moscow. However, the background of general political stability in Russia, I do not expect significant effects on the real estate market of this rearrangement, "says Igor Pinkevich. Agrees with him and Yuri Khlestakov, while Yuri notes that the policy of the city becomes more "federal."

Alex Demyanchuk also noted that across the country in the political aspect of significant shocks, fortunately, did not occur. As for Moscow, the resignation of the mayor, of course, affect the construction sector, but it will likely be seen until next year.

Alexander speckled, continuing the theme, names several federal initiatives of the Moscow mayor's office, which in his opinion, directly affect the real estate market - it's canceling certain decisions of the old city Administration for the transfer of some objects of the market affiliated with her business structures, revising certain provisions of the General Plan of the capital , a reduction factor of 3-4 terms matching initial permits and finding ways to solve transportation problems. In this case, Mr. Krapina notes that the new initiative of the Moscow Administration of real estate capital market participants will be able to feel only in the middle of the first quarter of 2011, this is due the fact that only the formation of a new team the mayor last 3-4 months, that is practically until February of next year .

Alexander Khrustalev, head of the company, market leader in new buildings, commented shift of power in Moscow - "Of course, the change of power in Moscow forced many real estate market participants to act with greater caution, many as far as I know, expect, when the policy of the new government will be more clearly outlined" . Alexander also noted that "the economy is recovering - it certainly has been a major trend for developers in 2010. Many construction resumed, and construction was carried out even more vigor than before the crisis. " Another important trend in 2010, which he called Mr. Khrustalev was deteriorating conditions on bank deposits. This became a turning point for private investors, who returned to the market buildings.

Opinion Vladlen Voloshin coincides with Mr. Khrustalev, in addition to a change in leadership of the Administration of Moscow, he also notes the stabilization of the real estate market, adding the fact that tougher 214-FL in the scheme of selling objects to individuals.

Demand, purchasing power, the number of transactions and new objects of real estate market

Analyzing the demand and purchasing power of the real estate market in 2010, experts' opinions were divided. So Vladlen Voloshin gave a low estimate of the demand and purchasing power of the real estate market in 2010, noting that an active demand for real estate use only economy class and objects displaced in the crisis because of the business in the economy class, as well as plots without a contract. Alexander Khrustalev, by contrast, is very pleased with the results of the year: "2010 was distinguished increased customer demand for real estate, and this demand was stable and was not highly visible seasonality, we are receiving an average of 10,000 calls per month and calls in 6000-7000 St. Petersburg. Purchasing power is definitely increased. Proof of this may be the fact that many of our facilities due to higher degree of readiness prices rose, while the monthly number of transactions it has remained the same. " Positive in 2010 regards Igor Pinkevich. "Of course, our group so far only one project, albeit a very ambitious project in the segment of comfort-class - a district Tsaritsyno, but judging by the high sales volume, things are quite successful," said Mr. Pinkevich.

The same trend confirms "Analytical and Consulting Center MIEL, according to their data, in the first half of 2010 the number of transactions in the market of new transactions exceeded the number of 4 quarters of 2009, while prices in 2010 has not undergone significant changes, but the market came new construction projects, such as the number of new challenges objects that appeared during the 3-quarter 2010 to 24% higher than their number in the corresponding period of 2009. Vladlen Voloshin added that in 2010 the number of projects Company Veles Capital in the active stage of implementation has increased by 70% compared with 2009. Alexander Crystal and Yuri Khlestakov estimated increase in the number of projects under construction for 2010 is 30-40%, with experts clarify that it counts not only new objects, but projects on which construction was resumed in 2010.

Alex Demyanchuk believes that significant demand throughout the year, had upward trend, thereby increasing the average cost of selling objects.

Alexander Pypin notes the trend in 2010 in Moscow secondary housing market - high business activity, which resulted in the highest number of sales transactions is higher than not only in times of crisis, but also the pre-crisis years. Trend has the potential to persist into 2011. About the entry of new developers, Alexander believes that developers are now facing the difficult choice of time and points of entry into the market, due to the fact that no known policy of the new city leadership in the field of urban development. For example, no clear future policy for the reconstruction of old areas of housing, making it difficult to determine the profitability and risks of buying apartments in "demolition". No less intriguing pose and possible perspectives of the changes in the market turnover of land in the city, order the preparation of communications for the construction of the order of social security contributions the city. "Perhaps, in the likeness of some cities, reduce the burden on builders, which will lead to the end of 2011 to enter the market at the zero stage of new projects with record-low initial cost, and thus high returns for investors. Perhaps, on the contrary, the pressure on builders to increase and, accordingly, today's prices for projects in the initial stage and will be the lowest, "concludes Alexander Pypin.

The most successful projects and new services in 2010

Assess the successful experiences and initiatives are always useful, it gives food to the mind, develops creativity and generates its own backlog of successful projects. So here's what the players said the real estate market.

Vladlen Voloshin called the most successful projects "Veles Capital realization of the 78 th and 80 th Quarter townhouses LCD" Potapovo "SWAD in Moscow and the growth in profitability of the first stage of the shopping and entertainment complex" Park "in Krasnogorsk and start building the second stage, area of 22 thousand square meters. m. Especially Vladlen would mark the beginning of transmission of the projects of AG «Capital Interra" in control "Veles Capital Development and launch of new investlinii for liquidation of land assets and then developing.

Alexander Khrustalev talking about the most successful projects "NDV-property", called in the first place, the implementation of district Tsaritsyno, which entered the market with record low price sq ft - 68 thousand rubles. and became the leader in sales, today we also managed to retain its leading position, despite the fact that the minimum cost apartment. m was already 76 thousand rubles. Alexander paid tribute to the developer, a group of companies "Nastya", noting that the company has developed a great concept. Describing the benefits of the project that are not in similar projects, economy and comfort, class, Igor Pinkevich called monolithic building with high quality veneer, underground parking and a separate, detached garage, a rich social infrastructure - kindergartens, schools, clinics, FLC, with a swimming pool, shopping mall. Of course, great value has a good location the neighborhood - on the contrary Tsaritsyn Park, next to Biruliovsky Dendropark. The new service called Igor Pinkevich service - high quality finish that buyers dubbed "evroremonotom.

Alex Demyanchuk notes that the most successful project of the First Trust Building and a symbol of this year, has rightly become Railway "Chocolate", which since January has grown from foundation to turnkey building, and in December will have to surrender the state commission. "Chocolate" is a monolithic 22-storey residential building superior, profitable in the current building stands out for its original architectural and engineering solutions. With regard to essential services building trust, then in 2010 we took another step toward our customers and start the service customer support rasskazyvet Mr. Demyanchuk. Potential or already a customer can get interesting information in any convenient way - leaving the application site of the First Building Trust ", by sending a letter or phone. No later than one day for each request will be made operational a comment. Many of our customers have already benefited from this service and expressed appreciation to the staff of the company. If we talk about new development horizons, then here "PST" strives to anticipate customer demand, offering customers the first in the Russian market the project in the format of holiday apartments "turnkey" - apartments in residential complex "Sea Symphony" in Sochi.

With regard to new services NDV-estate, the real breakthrough can be considered as service trade-in - «rapid offset of old apartments to flats and a joint project with ROSNO, through which now fear not only deals in the market of secondary housing, but and financial risks of buyers of new buildings.

Yuri Khlestakov named principal innovative service introduced by the company "Russian House Real Estate" - service "Examination of new buildings, thanks to which any buyer can order an official examination and get all the reliable information from the source and the supervisory authority. Formal assessment will contain information about the status of construction of any facility in Moscow, as well as any changes in ispolenii investment contracts and technical documentation. This service can be determined reliability and condition of the builder constructed structure before you buy an apartment, while receiving an official expert opinion. Real estate company "Russian House Real Estate is accredited as an expert in housing projects under the Government of Moscow.

Scenarios for 2011: Trends and Forecasts

Vladlen Voloshin sure that positive trends are incorporated in year 2010 will develop. First of all, grow wealth, and with it - the demand for property, he said. "The demand for plots without a contract will grow at a slower pace, and the dynamics of demand for finished houses will increase. Change priority areas will become more apparent that the effect on price growth, which is exacerbated by the choice of deals in 2010 and its reduction due to freeze construction of new settlements during and after the crisis. I think that on the ruble will not change, but the New Riga will grow on average by 15% in the finished villages. The remaining areas will be actively built up, not increasing in price, but forming a stable demand (Kaluga, Minsk). Prices for urban housing will be indexed within inflation. Commercial Real Estate "breathe" more freely. The volume of vacant space will continue to decline. Index the rates within 10-15%, "adds the expert.

"I think we will see a small monthly increase in prices per square meter. Of course, not as rapidly as before the crisis, but the cost per square meter will grow, "said Alexander crystal. Trends by segment allocated as follows: the suburban real estate, which, despite the abundance of new proposals in the 2010 recession, I think nothing will change. Yet rural property because of transportation problems in the region has always been regarded as a second home, so in times of crisis, these objects have shown the most dramatic decline, and therefore discredited in the eyes of private investors. Commercial real estate, Mr. Khrustalev would believe the tendency for increasing the number of proposals for offices of Class B and B +, since in these segments there is a shortage of office space. Luxury Real Estate showed a fairly rapid recovery and the number of transactions and prices. Post-crisis restructuring of this area is not over, I think in 2011 we will see here and new players and new rules, the expert said.

I think the market will show moderate growth, both in terms of consumer activity and the relative cost per square meter, adds Igor Pinkevich.

Alex Demyanchuk believes that the outlook for demand and volume of transactions will no doubt be positive. We assume that the level of transactions will increase by approximately 30-40%, as will the so-called "pent-up demand." Should play a role in the restoration of activity of banks in the construction and expansion of mortgage programs. If we talk about the price of a meter, the mad growth, both in the pre-crisis period 2006-2008, is not expected. We will watch a small monthly increase in the value meter, slightly above the inflation rate.

What segments of the market swings, "says Alex Demyanchuk, we expect the following trends. In the suburban real estate the most popular with customers will be conceptual villages with autonomous infrastructure at a small distance from Moscow. Sales will grow from those developers who offer items with fully ready communications.

In the field of real estate obviously a bundle. "Psevdoelitnoe" housing will remain at the same level and will go up in accordance with the general increase in property prices. A niche in a truly high-end housing there is a deficit, and suggestions. By mid 2011 we expect to run several high-profile and popular projects, the cost of which will probably be unprecedented, even for Moscow.

"According to our senses on the background of the restoration and revitalization of the Russian economy before the year is likely a price increase on the regular market in Moscow at a rate of 5-7%. And the fact that after the summer slump activity of potential buyers came back for the spring performance, most likely in the near future the market will revive and will accompany the decline in housing in the open sentence "gives his forecast Vladislav Lutsk.

Alexander specks, on the contrary believes that with high probability housing prices in the capital will slowly decline in the national currency due to the continuation of at least the acute phase of the crisis and reduce the pay of households. That is, the market will experience multiple W-script behavior of prices. At the same time, professional market participants will periodically initiate a process of increasing prices of proposals for housing, but these attempts are less successful.

Room square. m 2011

Our experts gave their predictions on the cost of apartment. m in the sector of economy and business class in 2011. So, how much will it cost apartment. m

Vladlen Voloshin, gave the following prognosis value square. m: 50-90 thousand rubles. per sq m in Moscow region, from 100 000 rub. per square. m - Economy in Moscow, and business - from 150 000 rub. per meter.

Forecast Alexander Khrustaleva: the economy class 140 thousand for the quarter. m, the business class - 180 thousand for the quarter. m

Alex Demyanchuk: Economy - 130 000 rubles / sq. m; business from 170 000 rubles / sq. m

Tip the buyer. When and how to buy profitable real estate?

The Board of Vladlen Voloshin: "In terms of investment is now possible to buy any liquidity of commercial real estate. I would give priority to trade. From a consumer perspective - buy what you like. "

Alexander Khrustalev, in turn, recommends investing in the economy, and comfort-class which shows the maximum growth in cost per square meter. "I think that in 2011 this trend will remain unchanged. When buying real estate should pay attention to how the quality of construction, and the pace of construction of the object. Well, if the project is constructed in an area with developed infrastructure and involves creating a self-sustaining their own infrastructure, "says the analyst.

If we talk about the market of new buildings, it is clear that customers who have bought property in 2010, has already come into the new year with a profit, because at the same time increasing the level of preparedness facilities and price per square meter on average in the market. Perhaps the developers will enjoy the New Year buyers of shares and discounts, but in 2011 the upward trend in housing values will certainly continue.

Recommendation for the best buy may be only one, "says Alex Demyanchuk - to buy housing in a reliable and honest builder with a proven track record in the initial stage of construction. Such purchases are most beneficial for both personal use and to invest. Key factors of investment attractiveness of the object: great accessibility, speed and quality construction. In my experience, "PST" can ensure that the highest value growth show the objects that comprise no more than 2-3 houses located in the established area with a comfortable understandable infrastructure and communications readiness. Such housing may cost a little more expensive than the offer in a mass of quarterly development, but will be much more profitable. Value-added apartment also give consumer characteristics such as: landscaping and planting local area, trim level common areas, the availability of parking spaces, convenient access to home and much more. One should not forget about the bonus - specific characteristics of apartments on higher floors. All these additional benefits can add between 5 and 10% of the cost.

Analyst Alexander Pypin supports Alexander Khrustaleva, noting benefits of investments in new buildings in the initial stage of construction, however, can not say about the risks that are most highly when you buy under construction. Geographically, the long-term growth prospects and value of different sites between the third and fourth circular road planned - surely in the environment-friendly removal of these trails.

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