Capital real estate can go down in value by 10%

27.12.2011 09:26
Real Estate Market Analysis | Capital real estate can go down in value by 10% Housing prices in Kiev since 2011 have fallen by 15%. Demand falls as banks curtail lending to the housing program, or give out money at 20% per annum and above.

"High interest rates are associated with the position of the National Bank and the Government of Ukraine. They are trying to restrict imports of goods in Ukraine. For a loan to buy mostly imported goods - appliances, electronics, cars. Imports exceed exports by more than $ 11 billion, which is threatening the national economy. For example, in the early 1990s, the Soviet Union had a trade deficit of $ 35 billion - and soon the country has collapsed. In addition, foreign banks, which issued a significant portion of housing loans, reduce its presence in Ukraine. Over the past six months, brought here more than a billion. And next year is unlikely to change its policy. Therefore, low-cost loans in 2012 will not "- said economist Victor Lissitzky.

Related article: During the year the offer of apartments in new buildings in Kiev and the prices are increased

Victor Nesin, head of the Association of Real Estate Advisors, said that the banks are to blame for non-return funds because of excessively high interest loans, "banks, including foreign capital, and provide housing loans at 20% per annum and above. With that in their countries, housing loans issued by a factor of ten smaller percentages. An example, in Switzerland - by 2.8% per annum. High stakes in Ukraine to explain risk in our market. While the range and create these risks. For the impossibly high interest rates for borrowers. Banks themselves set the stage for failure to return funds. "

One-bedroom apartment now costs an average of $ 50 thousand, half the price of the pre-crisis 2008 then prices for Moscow real estate peaked. There are currently 10 properties for sale have a real buyer.

"Sellers are inferior. One room that put over $ 50K, sell for 2-3 thousand less. Priced at $ 100K sold for 20 thousand less. Housing loans in Ukraine is almost no issue, despite the frenzied interest - 25% per annum and above. Large apartments are buying mainly businessmen and members of the middle level. Ordinary citizens in the main housing change. For example, sell a large apartment, and for the money to buy two malometrazhki "- explained VA Nesin.

Now the real estate market to stagnate. House prices in older homes may remain at current levels or even cheaper by 10%.

"Until now, shelter from the secondary market has always been 20% more expensive than new construction. Because with less risk of finished apartments. However, the new building next year could grow by 5-10% because of rising costs due to rise in price of construction materials. In 2011, work on new buildings came to life. Helped the state by funding from the protracted state of preparedness of 70% or higher. Housing construction remains a lucrative business. Although profitability has declined. In the pre-crisis years, it was 200-300%. Now reduced to 50% ", - summed B. Nesin.

Paul Miller, an expert of "WFP is consulting", convinced that prices will remain at current levels: "The price of real estate in 2012 will be stable. In the foreign currency equivalent will cost the same as this year. That is, the dollar price will remain unchanged. But we must take into account the inflation that exists in the U.S. - 3-4% per annum. This is a preliminary forecast. Massive decline in prices will not be. The real estate market is now balanced. "


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