Summing up the real estate market

31.12.2013 01:15
Real Estate Market Analysis |  Summing up the real estate market In the league table of the IMF report DoingBusiness 2013, Ukraine has shot up by 28 positions, entering the top ten countries with the fastest growing level of welfare. Lion's share of the merits of such a jump - a series of legislative innovations in the real estate market. Adopted reforms designed to ensure transparency of the construction processes and operations on purchase and sale of real estate , having secured thereby market participants. Nevertheless , the first time under the new rules , which came into force in 2013 , market participants have delivered more problems than solutions.

Instability of the economic and political situation, the decline in real income , the outflow of foreign capital , reasonable risks currency collapse and emergency mode start notorious innovations created the conditions under which a noticeable development of the real estate market is not impossible. However , despite the recession, the state's economy in general and the construction industry in particular, the primary housing market in the first three quarters showed dynamic growth of new supply has slowed sharply due to the unstable political situation and fear of preserving the stability of the hryvnia .

Related article: On the status and prospects of the real estate market in Lviv in 2010-2011.

So drastic changes within one year Ukrainian real estate market has not yet seen. New rules for registration of property by means of a single state registry of instability which has already temporarily paralyze the market , limiting cash payments to individuals, modified procedure of real estate appraisal and a number of other innovations , the impact of which is difficult to be called positive , which is not to say the opposite. New costs in the form of additional payments may reach 5 % of the purchase price . Complications of registration of property rights as a result of the reform evaluation activity , caused a decrease in sales in the secondary market, and required courses , training the new conditions began kits for educational programs shortly before the entry into force of the amended rules of assessment , thereby ensuring competent staff shortage and suspension Affairs of thousands of certified experts , have not gone through the training . On the other hand , in 2013 there was a preponderance towards sales in the primary market , a large volume of supply of new and better housing is also influenced by the decline in demand on the secondary . At the same time , started in 2011, government loan programs for affordable housing on the basis of one and a half years of work did not give the expected results , failing to take a mere 3 % of the total mortgage market. To date, the obvious benefit from innovations made ​​fully felt only the state , received an additional tool for monitoring the market and creating a new source of income controlled by the state budget , burdening the real estate transaction charges.

It is worth noting that some changes have simplified the work of developers . The adoption in the first half of the year the law "On regulation of urban development " enabled start conducting work in the area on the basis of a declaration that a marked increase in the volume of construction due to start work on a large number of new projects. New projects entering the primary market , continue the already established trend of rationalization planning downward flat area, continuing the improvement of in-house infrastructure. At the same time , a large proportion of the new LCD is a point construction , which is primarily due to scarcity of land in Kiev. Limited number of areas that are attractive for housing usually have a mass of encumbrances , the cost of settling which in most cases negates the financial viability of the project. Continues active expansion of suburban housing market , which is now turned into a " test track ", where under the influence of stronger competition , developers are trying to allocate the object , paying more attention to their quality and infrastructure.

Published at the beginning of a ten year forecasts collapse in prices in the fourth quarter did not materialize because of the achievement of a price floor as early as 2012 . Avoiding significant fluctuations during the year , the market in the fourth quarter was marked by a sharp drop in the number of transactions , which began as a result of the fault of the public registry , and reached its peak in the first half of December , when the country was flooded with mass protests.

Prolonged stagnation throughout the year restrained appetites developers without exposing noticeable changes declared prices . However, the real price, in most cases , was lower than claimed by numerous discounts depending on the method of investing. Few companies experiencing shortage of own funds , resorted to dumping in the early stages of construction. Such sales say about the folly and lead developer at best significant delays commissioning. Key players in the market , trying not to resort to price competition , fighting for a buyer, offering more and more loyal sales tools . Has already become the norm during the absence of affordable mortgage installments , provided by the developer , is becoming increasingly attractive to potential investors . During the year, there was plenty of suggestions of long-term installments , the minimum down payment for which reaches 10 % of the price . Developers , for which priority is rapid return on investment , avoid long installments , offering as an alternative to the lack of additional payments and fixing price per square meter provided an initial payment , usually not less than 50-70% of the transaction amount . Occasional attempts to use the new sales tools for Ukraine ( such as the ability Mutual ) in the near future is unlikely to receive a distribution, in particular due to the low quality of the secondary housing.

By reducing the rate of refinancing SMI , banks in the second half of the year were able to reduce the cost of the mortgage , bringing the market average effective interest rate in domestic currency to 23.1 % at year end. Despite the cheaper mortgage, it is still far from acceptable for most borrowers , using demand only when necessary to attract the missing 10-20% of the transaction amount . On the restoration of the mortgage market more widely spread affect partnerships between the developer and the bank. Intelligently share the risk , such alliances can reduce the cost of credit up to half the market average , virtually putting forward requirements to the borrower . Autumn "Intergal -Bud " started working in this direction together with the " Delta Bank " , resulting in the opportunity to offer customers mortgage lending at a rate of 8.99 % APR for up to 15 years with an initial contribution of 20% of the transaction value. At the same time credit is given to buyers with virtually any size official income .

Number of transactions in the primary market continues to grow , its share by the end of the year increased by 15%, reaching 78 % of the total market concluded . Downturn in the "secondary " provoked the collapse of its value to the level of the primary housing. The main reasons for the fall in sales in the secondary market is the lack of affordable mortgages and obsolete housing stock , significantly inferior to the new construction from the technical condition of the building, ending with planning decisions . For the same reasons housing is growing in popularity in the country as an alternative to living in a remote residential area. Flexible payment terms , the possibility of escape from the payment of additional fees during the registration of property rights - the majority of factors suggests a higher investment attractiveness of the buildings.

The basic amount of trades generated the economy segment , where increased demand for one-bedroom apartments . The demand for one- preserved , including due to return to the market of investors who invest for the purpose of renting.

Increasing due to the high density development competition in the business segment part forced developers to make changes to their projects to a cheapening of their continuing formation of the capital market class "comfort" , the format of which was borrowed from the Moscow housing market.

The need to service external debt in terms of the negative balance of payments in 2014 , is likely to reinforce stagnation processes on the market of commercial housing . In the period of adaptation to the innovations adopted in 2013, added new : a tax on real property , the introduction of a tax on commercial property, change the minimum amount of rent for individuals and the law on real estate activity . Starting to work in their current form , these innovations will be yet another blow to the secondary market , which may somewhat reduce the number of sales and in the primary .

The volume of construction works continue to grow , continue the trend of suburban growth segment LCD in the new proposal . But the increased offer suburban housing can adjust the cost per square meter of housing economy class towards a slight decline .

Positive changes can be expected from the state program tenancy with right of redemption , on which development of China in early December provided the Ukrainian government credit line totaling $ 15 billion competent implementation of the state program will attract major investment industry and to significantly increase the volume of public construction , giving impetus to the recovery market .

Demand for affordable housing will increase by migrating following a proposal - that is, in the suburbs. Falling real incomes will make a major cost factor when selecting an object of investment. Further intensification of competition affect the growth of quality facilities and a significant improvement in customer service , in particular the post sales service .

Summarizing, we can say that the housing market next year will not undergo significant changes, many trends continue . Growing debt of the country in conjunction with the fall in exports , as well as the need to allocate substantial funds for the payment of external debt and the organization of the presidential election will not have a positive impact on the solvency of Ukraine. On the other hand , the adoption of the 2015 European Basketball Championship can contribute to investment , providing curative effect on the economy .
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