What do you expect the real estate market in Kiev?

The past year met the expectations about the real estate market is only half. Prices of accommodation and true Kiev declined slightly, as predicted by our experts. But disappointment mortgage. As expected, the end of 2011 interest rates on loans for housing were to fall to 16%. However, the simplification of the mortgage took place just before the fall, writes today.

Then he tore up stakes, and the bankers are too picky for the borrowers. As a result, get a mortgage has become almost impossible. However, the decline in prices is still played a role, so for the year has sold 30% more apartments than in 2010. At the same metropolitan housing still remains an elusive dream for most. Will it be in 2012? In this we are versed with the help of experts.

Request: increase by 30%

After almost a "dead" of 2010 was remembered last year revived the activity of buyers. According to realtors, number of people willing to see the choices of apartments has increased significantly. True, part with their money a few hurried. Even so, the increase in the number of transactions is impressive.

For example, according to real estate SV Realty, in Kiev, bought 11,373 apartments in the "secondary housing" and the new 6505. And it's more than in 2010, for 1967 and 4159, respectively. That is, the number of apartments sold rose by a third. Such growth is also confirmed by the Union of Real Estate Specialists of Ukraine. At the same time most (70%) have bought apartments at the cost of up to $ 100K

Particularly striking is the fact that the new apartments were sold last year three times more than in 2010. "The fact that the" primary organization "fell - explained director of real estate companies," Golden Gate "Alex Holmetsky. - Now the "square" it is cheaper than in the secondary market. Before the crisis, the old apartment cost $ 1,900 per square meter. m, and the new - $ 2000. Then the new building began to fall in price, and now in the primary market can be bought even by bedroom $ 1000-1100 for "square". At the "secondary housing" as it stands at $ 1500. "

FORECAST. This year, experts predict approximately the same rate (30%) increase in demand for housing Kiev. They call several reasons. First, the price increase still will not. Second, the increase in sales of new apartments to a small area (32-34 square meters. M for "unity"). Namely, these apartments are in demand. Thirdly, the owners of "the secondary" will continue to be willing to give a discount. "But the market does not recover fully until the mortgage becomes available - says leading specialist marketing company SV Development Sergey Kostecki. - This Parliament should allow the foreign currency lending. And it will happen no earlier than 2013-2014.. "

PRICE: CAN STILL fell by 10%

Most sellers are willing to throw 5-10% of the purchase price. Photo: A. Yaremchuk

Despite the awakened interest of buyers to the proposed apartments, to raise prices on their square footage was only the owners of budget accommodation. "Today, the seller - this is the cheapest apartments. And because their market is getting smaller - commented Sergey Kostecki. - Due to this, the average price of economy-slightly growing. " These words are confirmed by an expert from Kiev, Irina Shevchenko, who looks for the summer of 2-room apartment: "If the summer was filled with two-Khrushchev in the area, for example, Nivok at $ 62-63 thousand, but now they mostly put up by $ 65 - 67 thousand. "

But if we consider the real estate market as a whole, we can say that the apartment prices still fell slightly. Thus, according to analysts portal "Capital property", the average prices for apartments in Kiev, fell more than 4%, according to the Union of Realtors of Ukraine - 1.3%. In fact, these figures - within the statistical error. And if it were not for inflation, we talk about reducing it would be impossible. "But if at the beginning of the year apartment worth 360 thousand UAH ($ 45 thousand), and now it costs the same, then we can say that it fell by 10% (36 thousand USD), because such was the real inflation" - said Alexei Holmetsky.

Today, a wonderful price "Dormitory" in Kiev (except for the center and the "elite" areas) was established at $ 38-40 thousand, one-bedroom - $ 50-55 thousand, two-bedroom - $ 65-75 thousand, two-bedroom - $ 90-105 thousand The minimum cost of separate housing is $ 34 thousand - for an apartment with total area of ​​25 "squares" in the Dnieper area. The cheapest one-bedroom 47 square meters. m Troyeschina worth $ 43 thousand, and two-bedroom 68 square meters. m - $ 60 thousand for comparison, in April of 2011, "Dormitory," an area of ​​22 square meters. m offered for $ 32 thousand, and two-bedroom, 43 sq Xruschevka. m Darnitsa - $ 50 thousand

FORECAST. In 2012, according to experts we interviewed, "dollar" Apartment prices will only fall. "Now the prices for apartments still have to fall as well as real incomes are falling, - said Paul Miller. - They may be reduced at the same pace as this year - by 5-10%. "

Reduced incomes of Ukrainians (wages do not grow, and life becomes more expensive) finds occasion for the further fall in house prices and economist at the International Centre for Policy Studies Alexander Acorn. He predicted that prices for apartments in the dollar could decline by 5% if the current dollar exchange rate, or 10% if the dollar starts to rise in price (which is, in his opinion, may occur after the election). A Sergei Kostecki said that housing can in 2012, the fall in price by 5-10% due to lack of credit.

LAW: REFORMS AND NEW TAXES

Panic in the BTI. Problems of the real estate market last year, slipped the Bureau of Technical Inventory (BTI). In summer it switched to an electronic system of accounting, which is why the market "slowed down" for about a month. And from 1 January 2012, it was planned to pass a number of basic functions BTI another structure - the State Registration Service (State Register), the Ministry of Justice. This caused a rush and long queues at the BTI in December. However, the authorities' plans have changed and the reform was postponed for one year exactly.

As planned improvements will be required to make life easier for both sellers of apartments, and buyers. For example, the State Service will register property rights, working on a "single window" (once he brought the documents and after some time took). Whereas now, no real estate transaction is not complete without multiple visits BTI. In addition, although the Bureau and will continue to do inventory of apartments, there will continue to apply only upon delivery of a new house in operation. That is, the "additional charges" for the legalization of redevelopment in the BTI, which, according to the payers, generally ranged from $ 300, will be forgotten.

TAX BURDEN. Another innovation was the legal position of the Tax Code, which entered into force on November 1, 2011 At this point, selling an apartment, bought less than 3 years ago, you have to pay 5% tax on its appraised value. The same amount will have to pay more and if you sell the apartment more than once a year. By the way, according to deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Society of Appraisers Natalie Swan, estimate the standard one-bedroom, depending on the area of ​​the apartment is 250 to 600 USD in Ukraine and in Kiev UAH 450-600.

However, according to experts, a fully new provision of the Tax Code will work only when the provincial administration will adopt the minimum value of apartments in each region, and the law will determine which state agency will issue the certificate on the final price of real estate. In this new requirement, according to Natalie Swan, has no effect on the market: prices do not rise, the number of transactions is reduced. "Just sellers and brokers will receive less income - she says. - Because the market value of apartments is formed in the first place, under the influence of money in public. "

FORECAST

Rearrangement. Novelty 2012 will be amended registration requirements for redevelopment of apartments. Now, in effect, legitimize this mess can be both before and after the transaction, but from 1 April will need to obtain permission first, and then later to change something in your home. Grow and fines. For example, now the penalty for making this redevelopment, "after the fact" 17-200 USD. Since April, the same will have to pay from 51 USD to 50% of the estimate (which may already be thousands of hryvnia). However, the procedure of legalization adjustment easier.

Now we need to get permission to multiple services, then draw the conclusion finished project in the department of architecture and a few months to wait for the decision of the executive committee. And on April 1 will be enough to write a statement about the upcoming alteration and to contact the office of the Executive Committee. They send the documents to the department of architecture, which defines the procedure for registration.

TAX SHELTER. On July 1, 2012 is expected to introduce a property tax for owners of apartments over 120 square meters. meters and houses more than 250 square meters. m. Its size will be 1% of the minimum wage as of January 1 of the year (now - 1073 USD) per 1 sq. km. m of living space for the apartments to 240 square meters. m and houses up to 500 square meters. m. In this case, if the area exceeds 240 square meters apartment. m, and the house - 500 square meters. m, the tax rate will be 2.7%. And for his failure to pay the penalty - 10% of the amount of tax (or underestimation of the amount) for delay of up to 30 days and 20% - for delay beyond 30 days.

However, do not rush to be frightened. It will have to pay is not everything. As a senior lawyer told the International Law Group AstapovLawyers Yashenkova Julia, owner of the apartment in order to optimize the tax could reduce the size of your living space, for example by issuing a house of 750 square meters. m for themselves and two children. "So, you can save your budget by 14 485.50 UAH", - explained the expert. According to Yulia Yashenkovoy, tax must be paid by residential, rather than the total area of ​​an apartment or house.

MORTGAGES: 26% - no limit

In early 2011, mortgage rates have headed for decline, and the conditions of its reception simplified. But in November the banks rescued people all the hunting to take such loans by raising the rate to 20-22%.

FORECAST. According to experts' KreditMarketa "by the end of 2012 the average rate could reach 24-27% per annum. The reason is that rising interest rates on deposits. And the cost of borrowing depends on the deposit rates, exceeding them by 4-5%. The only hope for simplification of lending conditions - a new idea of ​​the National Bank. The regulator plans to set up agency refinance home loans (ARZHK). It will include 4 banks: "Oschadbank", "Ukrgasbank", "Ukreximbank" and "Kiev". This agency will be issuing mortgage bonds with a yield of 12-14% per annum. The money from the sale be directed to a partial compensation of interest rates on mortgages. Then, by the head of the NBU forecasts Sergei Arbuzov for borrowers mortgage loans will cost 16-18%.

Installments will please

"Lethargy" mortgages made to give developers more active loans for the purchase of apartments. Thus, our monitoring stroykompanii showed that lend to the new building at the end of the year offer for about 20 companies, although in May there were half that. Plus grew term installments: an average of 6 months. up to 1 year. And some developers are willing to lend money at 10 years (before - only 5). At the same time more and more companies are willing to give it a 0%. True, it does not become more accessible. Still, in most cases payments are more than 10 thousand hryvnias per month. Therefore installments, mostly, can afford to those who do not have an apartment in nothing at all. For example, $ 10K If we divide this amount by 2 years, a month to pay only 3300 USD.

FORECAST. In 2012, to buy an apartment in installments would be a bit easier. And all because of the fact that the building will be mostly at home with small apartments. According to Paul Miller, the developers will focus on "unity" with the area 32-34 "square". A smaller apartment, so it is cheaper and easier to pay the cost in installments.

Bedroom Furniture from 100 UAH
Cats Maine coon from 100 UAH
Gas and electric ranges from 200 UAH
Children's toys from 15grn

RENT: can rise by 15%

The rental market in 2011, also revived. For example, according to real estate SV Realty, in Kiev, shot 13 714 flats, that is, 4224 (30%) than in the previous year.

Prices creep up. As for prices, they grew at a slower pace - at 5-11%. At the same time became more expensive economy class apartments only in peripheral areas. Experts explain this by saying that it was for such housing prices in the beginning of the year were on the "bottom", we have decided to increase when the "communal" in the capital has risen.

BROKERS RATE inflate. Since the end of 2011 housing cost up to three thousand UAH per month was "worth its weight in gold." "I want to find a cheaper 3 thousand USD per month - says Oksana V. of Khmelnitsky. - But there are very few options and they are just too "dead." And if the apartment is cheaper than three thousand, brokerage higher than usual. To rent a studio for 2.7 thousand UAH, the broker must pay 1.8-2.5 thousand. "

FORECAST. This year's rent in Kiev, according to forecasts of economists and real estate agents, not much more expensive: a maximum of 15% and then only because of inflation. "If the price increase in 2012 will be 20% per year, rental will increase by 10-15%, - says Sergey Kostecki. - If up to 10%, then by 5-7%. " Expected and occasional increase in the cost of the lease. For example, the president of the Union of Real Estate Specialists of Ukraine Alexander Rubanov suggests that during the "Euro-2012", it can rise by 5-7%.

LAND MARKET IN CRISIS

The land market in 2011, a collapse in prices continued. Sites in the Kiev area under construction, according to SV Development, due to low demand fell by 16%. For 11 months. were sold only 13 629 sites, ie 17% less than 11 months. Of 2010. The average cost of houses has changed little, to keep at around $ 965 per "square". Although the demand, according to SV Development, declined by 9%. As for the houses, then, as explained by Alex Holmetsky were sold to only those that were less than $ 100 thousand, however, now for the money you can buy a nice mansion. For example, in Vasylkivska area in December sold the house on 150 sqm for only $ 120 thousand

RENEWAL OF THE WILL. The price of land and suburban real estate, according to Alexander Rubanova until the end of 2012 will fall - by 5-10% per year. The same forecast gives Alexander Okhrimenko. A Sergei Kostecki predicts drop in the price of land at 10-15% per annum, cottages - by 5%. Their predictions experts explain the fact that demand will not grow. Indeed, in the near future is not expected any significant increase in wages, or the revival of lending.
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